Volumetric analysis on October 31
The breakdown of 1.2855, which we waited to confirm the initiative of buyers, did not take a place. And even more, we observed how the price dropped, closing the positions of other market participants with the loss, as evidenced by the course of trading of currency futures at the time of updating the lows. In principle, we allowed such scenario. It is important that after this breakdown we did not see almost any attempts to buy an asset, which indirectly indicates that there is no buyer in the market. At least for now. So, we take the movement down as the main, and up as corrective. And we believe that the downward trend is developing. At least until the price is above 1.2855. Scenario two. The first is conservative - the expectation of corrective growth to resistance 1.2790-1.2855 and sale from there with a goal to 1.2730 and possibly more. Or the second scenario - aggressive, selling from current prices after a small impulse down with the expectation of movement to 1.2600.
The pair confidently breaks through 112.90, rolls back after that and reaches the level of 113.15 by the end of yesterday. Exactly the scenario that we expected to see. Today we are already considering this pair as a trend upward. Probably, she has a lot of strength to grow, but in terms of favourable prices, it is better to wait for a rollback to resistance. By adjusting towards to price range of 112.90-112.65, you can search for entry points to purchases and work upwards with the targets of 113.50 and 113.70. Break of 112.65 will speak about the weakness of the trend and probably the upcoming outset. However, with good entry points for another support of 112,40-112,10, you can still count on rising to about 112.80.
During yesterday’s US session, this asset made a very tricky move. We saw an update of the minimum with a large volume, after which the price quickly and cheerfully rose back to the accumulation. Such moments give us reason to believe that a false test has taken place, and we can count on continued growth. The best place to look for entry points is support at 66.00-65.40. The most likely goal will be 67.20, less likely 68.70. The breakdown of the level of 65.40 will indicate that the upward trend does not develop, and that we were wrong. In this case, from the next day we will consider other trading ideas.