Volumetric analysis on January 30
As it turned out, in England there is no positive atmosphere in regards of Brexit. UK does not want to postpone the deal, either to hold a second referendum or leave under the “hard” scenario. The EU will not make concessions either. The amendment that it is better not to leave the EU than leave without a deal, although accepted, but it is not considered seriously. In general, there is not much light at the end of the tunnel, and as a result we see a decline in the pair. We are preparing for the implementation of yesterday's alternative scenario. This is a breakdown of support 1.3015 and after a rollback sale to 1.2950 and 1.2885. Do not forget to follow the news background from both England and the United States.
We hope that today we will hear explanations from the Fed regarding the information that they intend to terminate the QT program ahead of schedule. A QT program is the inverse of a QE program, that supposed to withdrawal money from the system. Thus, we get a strengthening of the dollar in the long term. In 2019, the Fed planned to withdraw from the system $ 600 billion. This is a very big amount. But today, only 10 billion have been extracted since the beginning of the year. The intrigue of today's FOMC meeting and the Fed's press conference is whether the regulator will really end the balance reduction program early or not? The market has already laid the information that the reduction will be. And if the Fed does not confirm this, then we will see a strengthening of the US dollar in the moment and in the long term. But if there is still a confirmation of intentions, then it is worth keeping track of how much remains and what does not. And compare with what we have now. And that means that the US dollar may weaken. Then the idea for the USDJPY pair associated with the sale after the breakdown of support 109.10 with targets 108.60 and 108.25.
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