Volumetric analysis on October 26
Mario Draghi did not surprise the markets at yesterday’s ECB press conference. In principle, and the pair went down in accordance with the market structure that has been on the market this whole week. Draghi confirmed that they would start curtailing the QE program in December 2018, and they would think about raising interest rates towards the end of 2019. However, today there are small grounds for believing that there will be no next update. Whether there will be a significant increase is also unknown, but we, starting from the market structure, can assume that the price will make a corrective growth, after which we can consider the probability of sales. However, this growth can be both in the zone of 1.1460-1.1495, and 1.1445-1.1400. We will assume that the correction will be insignificant and consider the possibility of sales from 1.1400-1.1445 with the target of 1.1350. However, it is possible to speak about a reversal and upward trend only after a breakdown of 1.1495, which is statistically unlikely today. Sales in our priority, but only after the correction. A break of 1.1300 will give us a reason to think about continuing the downward trend, but from next week.
Quotes declined and at the same time there was not even the correctional growth. However, here we also believe that the next update of the minimum cannot be expected. Closer to the closure of the American session on the adjacent forward section of the CME exchange was a large volume of transactions. At the same time, it was a market purchase. This can be closing short positions, or opening long ones. Both the first and second may prevent continuation of the decline. Looking at this, we accept the likelihood that a flat or even a pair will be waiting for us. It should also highlight the level of 1.2855. There was an accumulation of volume. We pay attention to it, and if the price breaks through it quickly and impulsively, then indirect conclusions can be made that there is an initiative of buyers in the market, then you can look at the opportunity to buy with a target of 1.2855 or even 1.2960.