Volumetric analysis on January 25
The press conference was relatively calm. Mario Draghi did not make a pressure on EURUSD, however it still fell. What happened? Draghi said that they would not expand the TLTRO program, although some members of the ECB Council discussed this possibility. And the first interest rate increases should be expected at the end of the summer of 2019. It turns out that absolutely no changes have occurred. Moreover, Draghi said that the risks in the global economy are decreasing, and the ECB is confident that target inflation rates will be achieved. And when asked about the effectiveness of the TLTRO program, Draghi assured that it has high efficiency, and fully copes with its tasks. After these statements and the end of the press conference, we saw the growth of the Common European Currency. But then either speculators, or the market as a whole, realized that the economy had not become better. The level of production is decreasing, the consumer price index is not growing, but Brexit is still on the nose, the results of which are more than not determined. And, in fact, the press conference was similar to an episode from the comic series “Sharp Piqué”, where everything goes downhill, and the commander remains calm himself and inspires him to his surroundings.
Thus, fundamentally, EURUSD still looks down, the technical picture also speaks about the same. The zone of alleged resistance has expanded and limited to the range of 1.1365-1.1425. In the current situation, we can talk about purchases after the breakdown of the level at 1.1425, which is unlikely for now. But it makes sense to start sales only after correctional growth in resistance and good entry points there. The goal of the fall has not yet been determined, most likely, we will return to this idea on Monday.
Updating the highs during the Asian trading session was accompanied by a positive delta of deals on the adjacent CME futures section. Usually this is a consequence of triggering stop orders. Apparently, someone will wake up without existing positions. But why this breakdown took place? The news background is empty, no Brexit decisions are heard, and the UK neighbour for the EURUSD currency has been falling. Such things most often just do not happen. There are no signs of false breakdown in this breakdown, but the time has not yet come for them to appear. That is, the main sessions have not started trading yet. We would caution you against the idea of buying this pair. Since this can all end badly. About shopping a little you can think only when going down to 1.3075-1.3015. And then, it is better to see whether there will be a reaction. In this regard, it is better to see a breakdown of 1.3015, which will tell us that today's takeaway was a false breakdown. In this case, you can count on a reduction towards targets 1.2950 and 1.2885. And if there is more negative news, then you can count on a greater decline.
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