Wave analysis of EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD on December 21.
Contrary to yesterday's expectations, we saw the continuation of the rise of the currency pair within the upward momentum 1. Judging by the internal structure of this wave, at the moment the fourth part of it is forming. Thus, today the market can rise within the framework of the bullish momentum [v] of 1. In support of this assumption, we can cite the fact that in the credit markets, there is an increase in the yield of 10-year German government bonds relative to its counterparts from the United States and Great Britain, this usually contributes to the rise of the currency pair.
Exactly in accordance with the previous review, we saw the completion of the development of the correctional wave x, and the beginning of the decline of the currency pair within the downward zigzag z. The zigzag consists of three parts. It is likely that the first part has already been built, so in the near future we are likely to see a small correction part that can take a lateral or ascending form, then the market will continue to move down. In this situation, it is possible to open short positions, because the fundamental background also indicates the strength of the bears. The yield spread of 10-year US and UK government bonds is at its lowest level in the last six months. And also, in the US the day before yesterday we saw the release of the report on the growth of home sales in the secondary market at the maximum level since December 2006, this indicates the acceleration of US economic growth, which is positive for the dollar and could lead to a decrease in the GBPUSD currency pair.
The market continues to move within the lateral correctional wave [iv], which, judging by its internal structure, can already take the form of a triangle. Usually the presence on the chart of a long side flat is a signal that the market will continue to move in the direction in which it moved to this lateral correction after its completion. Thus, the probability is high that soon the growth of the currency pair will continue within the framework of the upward impulse wave [v] of (1). However, it should be noted that the growth is unlikely to be large, and after the completion of the pulse (1), we may see the formation of a downward correction (2).
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