Volumetric analysis on October 15


London and Brussels reached an agreement on the parameters of Brexit, and another 15 October, the EU plans to approve a new package of sanctions against Russia at the council of the foreign ministers of the EU countries. In general, the week began with the gap on the EURUSD and GBPUSD quotes. Also, the economic calendar on this week contains more events. The market decline on the EURUSD at the Friday American session eliminated our scenario for the purchase of an asset. We saw an update of a minimum - 1.1535, therefore we start current week with the idea of further price depreciation. 1,1610-1,1570 perceive as resistance, a lot of volume was traded on Friday, and, most likely, there is an open interest of sellers. So, after correctional growth in this area, sales can be considered with a target to 1,1505. There may be no correction, so those who like to risk more than usual can consider selling from current prices to the same goals.


The negative gap was surprise for most market participants, because reaching agreements on the Brexit procedure, in theory, good news. Most likely, we do not know something yet. On the other hand, the resistance of 1.3250-1.3300 did its job, and the price really pushed down from it. Today, 1.3225-1.3165 is perceived as resistance, we assume corrective growth and rebound from resistance to 1.3110. As you can see, we are not considering serious trend movements yet, but rather we are counting on some kind of side action. It is a little alarming that we still do not know something about the Brexit.


This asset tests our patience. Please note, that the price never drops below the 1215, which we talked about in the last review. But it can be both- a sign of the trend strength and a sign of its reversal. The volume that has been trading in the price range of 1215-1226.50 is quite large, and can move in any direction. For the time being, we will stick to the trend upward structure as long as there is no reason to assume the opposite. But if there are open positions, then it is better to close them partially, because market forces can change. If there are no positions, then it is better to wait upwards structure confirmation. To do this, we need to wait for the breakdown of 1226.50, a corrective decline, and only then proceed to the purchases with the target of 1240. If we see the initiative of the sellers and the breakdown of 1215, then we begin to pay attention to the support of 1210-1202 and look for places to buy there. Reducing the price below 1202 will speak about the end of the upward trend.


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