Volumetric analysis on February 15


Poor data on US retail sales hit the dollar and prevent further currency strengthening. There are a few things that make bad data not so bad. It is worth at least paying attention to the fact that this is data for January, for the month, which is relatively quiet from the buyer’s perspective. In other words, everything has already been spent in December. From the technical point of view, the market structure has not changed. The price is also under the range of 1.1350-1.1310, where it is possible to find the seller’s open interest. And until the price is above 1.1350, we will consider the downward movement as the main one, upwards as a corrective movement. If there is a position, then it is worth staying and, perhaps, to drop partially in the area of ​​1.1270. If not, then you can also re-start, but you should understand that the desire to update at least after the news and on the last day of the week is much lower, which means that there may not be much potential.


We saw an update of the local lows instead of range trading. From the point of view of trading, this is good, especially since we preferred it downwards. Now we note that the price is below a large balance, and the downward movement for us is basic at least until the price breaks through 1.2995. Today we will rely on the price to push off from a small resistance in the range of 1.2830-1.2885. The peculiarity of this range is that its breakdown will not mean a reversal of the trend, but will only indicate the weakness of the sellers. But the goal we will pick a small - 1.2750. Do not forget that the Brexit theme can appear at any time, including this coming weekend. Therefore, we will try to remain without positions.


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