Volumetric analysis on December 13

EUR/USD

Today is the ECB meeting and therefore we expect volatility higher than usual. There are a number of reasons for this. Mario Draghi must confirm the completion of the QE program. However, there is a small difficulty. The growth of inflation rate has slowed down recently, which may give the regulator a signal to apply some measures aimed to weakening the European currency. This may be a verbal intervention or the delaying the nearest interest rate increase. All this can send the EURUSD down. Also, there is a problem with the banking sector, and, accordingly, we can expect an extension of the TLTRO program. In fact, it is pumping liquidity into the banking sector. Announcement of this program can also reduce the current quotes of Single currency. At the same time, the regulator may ignore the slowdown of inflation rates, referring simply to the world economic situation. In general, we suggest to pay attention to the press conference and the publication of the decisions of the ECB. From the technical side, we are hanging in the centre of the outset 1.1220-1.1475. This is a large enough price range, and most likely the price will not get out of it. Unless, of course, we hear any serious statements from Draghi. In any case, consider any trend deals worth the fact of a breakdown our support or resistance.

GBP/USD

It is not easy time for the Prime Minister of England. Yesterday there was a threat of resignation and, accordingly, the staging of all agreements and the whole Brexit procedure. However, the parliamentary majority still supported Teresa May, and the resignation did not take a place. Moreover, the prime minister received immunity for the 12 months. At this point, we saw an increase in GBPUSD, which, moreover, was reinforced by May's statements that the Brexit deal would go well and England would ultimately benefit from this. However, one should not forget that these are only words, but in fact an agreement is suspended. There is a probability of receiving a negative news, so for now there are no reasons for a serious strengthening of the GBPUSD pair. We note that 1.2680-1.2615 for us is still resistance, and the main movement is downwards oriented.

 


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