Wave analysis of EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD on February 12.
In accordance with the previous review, an upward correction wave [iv] is now developing, which can be fully completed by the evening. After that, a downward movement is possible within the framework of the impulse wave [v] in the composition of the wave c. In favor of this scenario says the situation on the debt market, where the yield differential of 10-year government bonds in Germany declines relative to its counterparts from the US, which is a negative factor for the euro. In addition, we see sales in commodity markets, which strengthens the dollar, because raw materials are quoted in US currency. In this regard, the most likely scenario of price movement in the near future is the downward trend.
The market fell sharply in the previous trading day, updating the local minimum. Most likely, the final part of the downward impulse wave (v) is formed, within which we will see a decline today. In favour of this scenario says the situation on the debt market, where the yield of 10-year government bonds in the UK declines relative to its counterparts from the US and Germany. And also, at the moment we see a sell-off in the oil market, and as the current currency pair and Brent crude oil have a fairly strong correlation, the probability of GBPUSD decrease is increasing.
After the completion of the construction of the downward impulse wave 3, we saw the beginning of the development of the ascending correction wave 4. Most likely, during the whole trading day, we will see the development of this corrective wave, which can take the form of lateral correction, or a wave consisting of three parts. Thus, today a slight upward or lateral movement of the currency pair is possible.
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