Volumetric analysis on October 05


Data on the labour market, which today will be published in the United States, however it did not represent significant reaction for a long time. The fact that the labour market, as well as the state of inflation, are important indicators for making decisions about the future interest rate. But market sentiment is such that the US Federal Reserve without a labour market has already made a firm decision. The interest rate will be increased in December. In addition, the unemployment rate looks so good that even a worsening of the situation will not give the former reaction. The Fed is not following the labour market, and we also don’t pay much attention to it. Therefore, we believe that any data should not change the market structure, all other things being equal. As for ideas, in principle, it is logical to continue to implement yesterday's idea. Namely, we are waiting for a decline in the rate to 1.1420 from resistance 1.1510-1.1590.


Support 1,2845-1,2780 did its job, and we did not even see a rollback. Most often, this is a sign of the strength of a trend, and therefore it is logical to assume that the upward movement is basic for us, and downward is only a correction. For reference, we take the support of 1.2885-1.2860 and accept that the price should not fall below the current trend, but levels 1.2960 and 1.3010 can serve as a goal for us. It is also worth remembering that at 15:30, in addition to data on employment from the US, we will also see similar data from Canada. So, at 15:30 it will most likely be hot. But, nevertheless, it makes sense to speak about sales only after the breakdown of the level 1.2780, which is unlikely today.


It seems that the trend is exhausted. Note, that yesterday's price reduction easily overcame the support we expected. This suggests that we were wrong, and the buyer’s open interest is obviously not there. But the price range 75.15-76.75 is of interest. Firstly, because a rather large amount of volume is concentrated there, and secondly, the removal of prices upwards on October 3 has signs of a false breakdown, and the nature of yesterday’s opening of the American session says that sellers' activity is strong. We take the zone 75.15-76.75 as resistance, if we see the price approaching there, we can consider selling up to 73.75 and 72.20, but without much perseverance, since oil still looks globally upward.



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