For those who catch the momentum of movement, who does not have enough adrenaline, in general for someone who does not like to hold their trades for more than a few hours, it is worth paying attention to the local levels of support and resistance. At the time of the release of statistical data, in case of breakdown of the level, it is possible to try to enter the transaction, depending on the direction of the momentum of the movement. In this case, one should not expect extremely strong movements and you need to be prepared to close the position, while the price movement is not in your direction. The range of movement should be considered in the amount of 40 - 60 points. 1.1860 - 1.1850 will be a tempting entry point, subject to breaking the lower border of the channel, in order to take its profit on the correction.



For medium-term goals, the following levels can be noted. To open short positions, this price is around the level of 1.1750, the area of ​​the infamous 200 day moving average. Most likely the price will be delayed near this mark and it will be possible to search for entry points for opening short positions. In case of a price reversal and the beginning of a correction from the current levels, and when moving below 200 daytime sliding, all other things being equal, the price level of 1.15-1.16 will be interesting for entering into long positions. For those who do not hold long positions on the euro, it remains to regret the lost profits, relax and wait for a correction.



A strategic view requires drawing attention to the fundamental analysis of the situation. The size of interest rates, inflation, trade balances - without them an outlook of the pair will not be complete. The growth of EUR since the beginning of the year of more than ten percent, was the result of statements about a possible reduction in the purchase of assets on its balance sheet by the European Central Bank and the reduction of the carry trade.

A radical change in the situation, expanding the pair, may result from the expectation of a more intense increase in the rates of the Fed, and for the Fed to make this step, can only be caused by increased inflation, which in the US has not yet been observed. It remains to be seen for new portions of economic statistics and comments from the European Bank and the Fed. In such a situation, one should look at the strong resistance levels of 1,1950 and the levels at 1,2500- 1,2600 in EUR, this is the upper limit of the global falling channel.



Care: These reviews are a private opinion of ARUM CAPITAL and are provided for information only. In no way can the provided analysis be considered as an action signal, neither is it any sort of investment advice (for the purposes of EU Directive 2004/39/EC). ARUM CAPITAL waives any liability for the trading results which may arise after using these reviews. These materials contain NO warranties or guarantees, either direct or implicit, on the precise, complete or confirmed character of the details they contain.


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