Volumetric analysis on October 03
In general, it makes sense to follow our past ideas. It is about continuing the downward trend. But today in the Asian session, we have witnessed the growth of quotations. It is obvious that some kind of positive event appeared on the market, about which we have not yet informed. However, it did not lead to the change in the trend formation, at least for now, and drove the pair into the zone of 1.1630-1.1565, which we perceive as resistance, and, perhaps, it is the current prices that are the most attractive for sale, since 1,1520 is more than up to the cancellation level of our 1.1630 scenario. Could the published event lead to a change in trend and further growth of the pair after the opening of the European session? Of course, yes. However, we should understand that only after the price is above 1.1630, this pair should not be considered for short trading anymore.
On this pair, the picture is very similar to the picture of the previous pair. If we consider the structure of price reductions for the last week, we will find that in the price range of 0.7240-0.7200 the maximum volume is concentrated, where the seller’s open interest is most likely lies. Moreover, if we see how the quotation is traded on this area, then we should wait for the price reaction and hang down towards to 0.7155 and possibly price level at 0.7130 in the future. The downward movement for us is the main movement, at least until the price is above 0.7240.
Yesterday was quiet day for this instrument. If we analyse how oil futures traded on the CME, we can say that sales prevailed. It can be interpreted in different ways, since it can be traces of entry into the sale by large market participants, it can also be traces of exit from purchases. What exactly happened is guessing, but it is even better to wait and see where the initiative will be taken. Please note that our yesterday's price range 75.00-74.40 survived and was not broken through, which means it is too early to think about sales. We count on growth in the direction of 76.00 and do not forget that today there is a publication on oil reserves, which can bring volatility.