Which is stronger: EUR or USD?
Positive statistics came from the United States during the week. Strong retail sales supported the dollar and strengthened it against major currencies. The volume of retail sales is growing in almost all components. The level of economic health in the manufacturing sector, according to the index of business activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has nearly doubled, against market expectations. W. Dudley, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday said that he expects an increase in interest rates this year. This statement and strong statistics undoubtedly supported the dollar and raised its price over the week in relation to major currencies. However, with the European currency, the situation looks a bit different.
EUR also could not withstand the attack of the dollar, but the rate fell only slightly and kept trying to move in the opposite direction. The graph shows the current support at the level of approximately 1.17. Since the beginning of August, the chart shows a figure of the descending triangle, where the base of the triangle is the side at the level of 1.17. It is possible that the price will break this level and go below the designated mark. To do this, it will be sufficient to release a new block of positive data on economic statistics from the United States. In this case, most likely, the price will not stay below the 1.17 mark for long, and attempts will be made to return to the price channel with a range of 1.17 - 1.19. Also negative for the single European currency was added GDP data for the second quarter in Germany, which showed lower growth. The slowdown of the leading European economy in the future may put extremely negative pressure on the rate of the single European currency and at the September meeting of the ECB, a possible decision on the elimination of the stimulus program for the European economy may be postponed, which in turn will send the rate of the single European currency downwards. However, this is only one of the possibilities of the development of events. At the moment, the price is likely to be stuck in the 1.17-1.19 channel range until September, and when moving below 1.17, it is advisable to open long positions in EUR with the aim of further exit from the position closer to 1.19.
Today, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits will be published. A bad number could cause the pair to go below levels of 1.17. From August 4, in the technical analysis section of the company's website, a detailed technical analysis of the EUR / USD pair was published, in which the pair's possible movements were analyzed and they, in turn, match the current price outlook.
Care: These reviews are a private opinion of ARUM CAPITAL and are provided for information only. In no way can the provided analysis be considered as an action signal, neither is it any sort of investment advice (for the purposes of EU Directive 2004/39/EC). ARUM CAPITAL waives any liability for the trading results which may arise after using these reviews. These materials contain NO warranties or guarantees, either direct or implicit, on the precise, complete or confirmed character of the details they contain.