Bold goals

Philip Lowe, the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, will give a speech today. Comments on the decision on interest rates will certainly have an impact on the rate of the AUD / USD currency pair. In the current situation of a weak US dollar, any positive notes in the comments are able to move the Australian dollar rate to new heights. The fall of the dollar index against the backdrop of the failure of the US data on the number of initial applications for unemployment, adds to market participants’ confidence that a rate hike from the Fed may be postponed indefinitely.



Along with the comments, data is released on the change in the volume of industrial production in the UK. Most likely, with positive figures, the pound will sharply rush upwards, and in case of unfavourable data it will move downwards only for a short time, and the reason is one - a weak U.S. dollar.



A portion of statistics from Canada will add volatility to the national currency. The unemployment rate is by far the most important indicator of the health of the economy, which serves as a guide for the Bank of Canada to make an interest rate decision. Also, market participants will receive numbers of changes in the number of employed in the Canadian labour market. Undoubtedly, these statistics will have an impact on currency exchange rates, however, the main idea for today is the weakness of the US dollar. The dollar index moves to the south, thereby providing an opportunity for growth to other currencies.



It is worth remembering about gold. The growth in its prices is primarily due to the same weak dollar. Its growth currently mirrors the direction of the dollar index. Markets are by nature very inert, and currently on the horizon there are no news capable of reversing the fall of the index. Most likely, at the current moment, the market has many positions associated with a strong dollar. This is a very significant factor. It is advisable to wait for powerful growing candles against the US dollar - as this will serve as a signal for an early change of trend. We can safely assume that the fall of the dollar index will continue and, for example, the euro with the price tag 1.2 will seem very good level for entering into long positions on the pair.

Care: These reviews are a private opinion of ARUM CAPITAL and are provided for information only. In no way can the provided analysis be considered as an action signal, neither is it any sort of investment advice (for the purposes of EU Directive 2004/39/EC). ARUM CAPITAL waives any liability for the trading results which may arise after using these reviews. These materials contain NO warranties or guarantees, either direct or implicit, on the precise, complete or confirmed character of the details they contain.


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