A look at commodities


The most curious activity at present is the search for an answer to the question: when the Fed will start the cycle of raising its rates. The US economy as a whole is gaining strength, and financial conditions are favourable, however, the Fed wants to get a more detailed picture of inflation in the coming months, then, in turn, market participants will receive an answer to their question when the rate rises. Against this background, the dollar index is still falling, however, it is possible that a reversal will take place from these levels. At least it is worth counting on the correction of the dollar index. Accordingly, the dollar has a high chance of consolidating to major currencies this week, possibly not by much, but still. Gold in this case will move to downwards, of course, currently within the framework of a correction, and not a change in the local uptrend. Going short on gold is quite appropriate, but you should enter positions with stop-orders, for example, it will be quite appropriate to look at the local maximum level on the chart.



Although there is no clearly pronounced trend for WTI, there is no need to be upset about this event. Fluctuation of quotations occurs in the side range, and in the price range of $ 49-50 per barrel, you can try to open short positions - and when the price approaches 43-44, you can view these prices as very attractive for buying oil. Currently, there are no forces that can squeeze the price out of the formed channel.



It is worth mentioning the USD/JPY currency pair. In the context of the proposed correction for the dollar index and mitigation of geopolitical tension on the Korean Peninsula for this currency pair, it is quite possible for a strong move towards the growth of the dollar. In conclusion, it is worth recalling that the best way to mitigate significant losses, as always, is a correctly placed stop-order. Have successful and profitable week!


Care: These reviews are a private opinion of ARUM CAPITAL and are provided for information only. In no way can the provided analysis be considered as an action signal, neither is it any sort of investment advice (for the purposes of EU Directive 2004/39/EC). ARUM CAPITAL waives any liability for the trading results which may arise after using these reviews. These materials contain NO warranties or guarantees, either direct or implicit, on the precise, complete or confirmed character of the details they contain.


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