USD: when to wait for the strengthening of the currency?

 

The unemployment rate is one of the more important macroeconomic indicators, as this indicator allows for the assessment of the state of the economy.

Today, market participants will be able to compare two figures - the unemployment rate in the US is against the unemployment rate in Canada.

Chart: tradingeconomics.com

Chart: tradingeconomics.com

Most likely, the figures will be within the framework of their preliminary forecasts and will not have a significant impact on the price of the US and Canadian dollar, and in the case of a "surprise", there will be a strengthening of the currency which shall show the stronger statistical data.

The published statistics, which is received by the market participants from the US, should move the quotes of the US currency upwards, however, looking at the chart, there is no strong strengthening of the dollar index. Perhaps, the inertial strength of the weakening dollar does not allow for this scenario to be realized.

The ISM index rose to its maximum level in ten years. Economic activity in the US, coupled with a softened monetary policy, makes stock indices grow, however, the American currency simply does not seem to want to become the main investment idea.

American goods in this situation have certainly become more competitive, and all factors point to the growth of the USD - yet the situation remains as it is.

Against this background, the situation in the USD/RUB pair seems more simple and predictable. The traditional scenario of ruble weakening by the end of the year seems more likely.

Returning to the US dollar, it is necessary to comment on the statement of US President Donald Trump, the essence of which lies in the fact that the name of the new head of the Fed will soon become known. Most likely, this is the news that market participants are waiting for in order to confidently continue to buy the US dollar. Are there any who think otherwise? We wish you profitable trading!

 


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