To analyse the movement of oil prices, it is necessary to understand which current events have a stronger impact on the price, and which are less significant.

Last week, oil quotes attempted to grow after a local correction, however, this upward movement remained merely an attempt. The cessation of supplies from the largest Libyan field provoked this attempt at growth, and the information that appeared about the resumption of supplies, coupled with the statement of the Libyan security service that the key oil pipeline was under control, forced oil quotes to return to the levels from which the growth began.

In turn, declining oil reserves according to information from the API should push the price of oil up, but again, these facts are countered by the very rapid decline of the summer automotive season in the US, and, consequently, the decrease in demand for gasoline and, as a consequence, the reduction in oil consumption by gasoline processing plants . It is impossible to predict which events could cause oil to come out of the current triangle, which is clearly visible on the chart, and you should try to earn when the price exits from the triangle. If the price moves below $ 47 per barrel for the WTI brand, one may enter into short positions, without forgetting the stop, that should be placed near the entry point to the position. The aim of the downward movement will be the summer lower level in the range of 42-43 dollars. In the event that the events unfold in the opposite direction, and the price goes up, the mark of $ 50 per barrel on the WTI Oil will be a good reason to take a long position, where the price of the local movement will be 53-54 dollars per barrel. The probabilities of the development of either the first and second scenarios are similar. The most important thing is to enter into the right position and not 'argue' with the market, but go along with it on the trend.



At 12:30 GMT time, we will see the release of the indicator of the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. Only in case of significant discrepancies in the published figures to the expected figures, the markets can expect increased volatility. However, most likely the figures will come at the expected levels, and the markets will continue their consolidation.


Care: These reviews are a private opinion of ARUM CAPITAL and are provided for information only. In no way can the provided analysis be considered as an action signal, neither is it any sort of investment advice (for the purposes of EU Directive 2004/39/EC). ARUM CAPITAL waives any liability for the trading results which may arise after using these reviews. These materials contain NO warranties or guarantees, either direct or implicit, on the precise, complete or confirmed character of the details they contain.


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