Data from the US and Europe - should we await surprises?

 

Industrial production in the eurozone - these figures, which market participants will receive today, are set to please with another high value. This data will be for August. The most interesting thing, however, lies elsewhere. If we compare this with the figures of statistics from the USA, it can be seen that the European economy is more confident in comparison with the American one in recent times. This factor, although not the main one, has nevertheless helped to move the European currency confidently upward. From this point of view, the statistics that will be published in the coming months will determine which of the two central banks will more intensively begin to tighten its monetary policy.

Chart: tradingeconomics.com

 

At 12-30 GMT, market participants will receive statistics from the United States which are no less interesting. The change in producer prices always signals to market participants about the beginning of a change in inflation trends, and when statistics are received that indicate an excessive acceleration of inflation, it can allow speculators to conclude that the Fed will not only tighten its monetary policy more intensively, but also raise the basic rate at the next meeting.

Chart: tradingeconomics.com

 

Then, in this case, one will have to hurry to buy the American currency not only against the major currencies, but against all other known currencies. This, however, is only a hypothetical scenario. Most likely, the index will be published within expectations, which will cause market participants to plunge into its routine work, and continue to look for the answer to the question: at what level is it better to enter short positions for EUR currency?

Perhaps at 14-30 GMT all doubts will be dispelled by the President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, with his speech. He will once again deliver a speech in which exchange speculators may hear non-standard measures to implement the ECB's plans for normalizing its monetary policy, and then the market participants will have nothing left except to buy up the European currency.

However, the stubborn statistics say that there is no need to wait for Draghi to surprise you, and you will only have to rely on your own strength to answer the main question: is it time to go short on EUR?

The extensive growth of the European Union is coming to an end, and the EU will have to look for a new model of economic development. Rich countries do not want to lend to the poor in the old way, and countries which may not be successful in economic terms do not want to live more modestly. Analogues of the Catalan story, most likely, will continue. This, however, is an important separate topic. Follow the reviews. We wish you profitable trading!

 


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Care: These reviews are a private opinion of ARUM CAPITAL and are provided for information only. In no way can the provided analysis be considered as an action signal, neither is it any sort of investment advice (for the purposes of EU Directive 2004/39/EC). ARUM CAPITAL waives any liability for the trading results which may arise after using these reviews. These materials contain NO warranties or guarantees, either direct or implicit, on the precise, complete or confirmed character of the details they contain.

 

 

 

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