A review of current events
The beginning of the new month will likely not bring a drastic change to the financial markets - currency pairs will continue their movement of the last few days.
The European currency is likely to continue its trend of strengthening from local minimum levels, and this movement will be helped by the data on the unemployment in the Euro area. This output is expected at 9%.
Further movement on the EUR/USD currency pair will depend on new statistics and from the main speakers, Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi, whose speeches are expected this week on Wednesday.
At the moment, we can make the following assumption on the movement of the EUR/USD pair’s price: in order for the European currency to continue to grow against the US dollar, it is extremely necessary to gain a foothold above the levels of 1.17. From this point of view, the speeches delivered by Yellen and Draghi will largely determine the pair’s further movement. Possible variations of the movement were previously covered in the reviews of September 27 and 28.
It should be noted that in case of a confident movement of the European currency below the 1.17 level, the EUR / USD currency pair is likely to consolidate in the price band of 1.15-1.17.
The index of business confidence, which will be published today in the US, will support the US currency. The expected value is more than 50, which indicates a favourable outlook for the US economy.
For the USD/JPY currency pair, the best solution seems to be the closing of long positions on the US dollar. If we assume that the dollar index will begin to strengthen more intensively, then other things being equal, the movement of the pair above the 115 mark is currently unlikely. The Japanese currency still remains a ‘safe haven’ currency, and the slightest exacerbation of the political situation will cause it to be in high demand.
The PMI index for the manufacturing sector in the UK, which will be published today, is not expected to have a significant impact on the GBP/USD pair.
The British currency remains an interesting idea for investment. The trading idea of September 18 remains relevant. We wish you profitable trading!
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